Cardiff Business School

economics faculty

Teaching Material

Modelling the UK economy- an overview of a research programme

Papers on Monetary Policy

• Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?, with David Meenagh, Eric Nowell, Prakriti Sofat and Naveen Srinivasan.
• Appendices to "Are the facts of UK inflation persistence to be explained by nominal rigidity or changes in monetary regime?"
• What are the right models and policies for a world of low inflation?, published in National Institute Economic Review, vol 196, April 2006, 92-106.
• Opportunistic Monetary Policy: an Alternative Rationalization, with Naveen Srinivasan. Journal of Economics and Business, 58, October-November 2006, 366-372.
• Understanding the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation with Naveen Srinivasan, Journal of Quantitative Economics, New Series Vol. 4 (1), January 2006, pp. 49-64.
• UK Inflation Persistence: Policy or Nature? with Prakriti Sofat, Eric Nowell and Naveen Srinivasan
• Monetary Policy --- should it move onto a price level target?, The AW Phillips memorial lecture to the New Zealand Association of Economists, July 2004
• Calvo Contracts - A Critique with David Peel
• Calvo Contracts - Optimal Indexation in General Equilibrium with Le, Vo Phuong Mai, updated January 2007. Appendix with full model listing.
• Exploitability as a specification test of the Phillips Curve, with David Peel pdf file, TeX file
• Optimal monetary policy - is price-level targeting the next step?, with David Peel, revised 16 July 2003. Published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy, November 2003, vol. 50, iss. 5, pp. 650-667(18) Blackwell Publishing
• Optimal monetary policy with endogenous contracts: is there a case for price level targeting?, with Eric Nowell, revised 16 July 2003
• Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor Rule?, with Francesco Perugini and Naveen Srinivasan, Full version, Economics Letters version (pdf file) published in Economics Letters, 76 (1) (2002) pp. 145-150
• Nominal contracting and monetary targets-drifting towards indexation, with Eric Nowell and Bruce Webb, (acrobat pdf file) Published in Economic Journal, 113 (January 2003)

Open Economy

• Comments on Bayoumi, Laxton and Pesenti, revised January 2005
• Notes on second generation open economy models: the 'workhorse model'
• Joining the European Monetary Union - comparing first and second generation open economy models, with Vo Phuong Mai Le, updated 20/1/2006. Published in Open Economies Review, Volume 17, Number 3/July 2006.
• Real Exchange Rate Overshooting RBC Style with Prakriti Sofat, Eric Nowell and David Meenagh
• On the equality of Real Interest Rates across borders in Integrated Capital Markets, with David Peel, Open Economies Review, 18(1), 2007.

Supply Side

• Growth and relative living standards - testing Barriers to Riches on post-war panel data, with David Meenagh and Jiang Wang
• Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA with Kent Matthews and Ruthira Naraidoo, forthcoming in European Journal of Political Economy
• Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment, with Ruthira Naraidoo
• Public Spending and Growth with Jiang Wang
• Testing a Simple Structural Model of Endogenous Growth with David Meenagh and Jiang Wang
• Agenda for tax reform, Centre for Policy Studies, 2006, pp. 19
• Agenda for a Reforming Government, updated 22/2/06

Financial Economics

• The Equity Risk premium and the prospects for markets Powerpoint presentation of speech to 2006 conference of SIFA - the support group for solicitors and accountancy based IFAs
• Explaining the Equity Risk Premium with Laurian Lungu, in Manchester School, 74(6),December, 2006, 670-700.
• Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes - a
  new test of market efficiency with David Meenagh and David Peel, Economics Letters, 94 (2007), 235-239.

Estimation and Testing

• A Bootstrap Test for the Dynamic Performance of DSGE Models . an Outline and Some Experiments, with Konstantinos Theodoridis and David Meenagh, see also appendices.
• Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML- a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits, with Bruce Webb, published in Economic Modelling 22(1), January 2005, pp. 187-205 .PDF file - updated August 2004, also appendices, Small Model Annex and Large Model Annex.
• A matlab function to evaluate the LM statistic for investigating Heteroscedasticity in a multivariate framework, as it is described by Doornik (1996) and Kelejian (1982) (K.A.Theodoridis)

 

Policy and forecasting

• Business Topics
  July 2007
  Business Topics Whole document (0.65MB)
  



• Should Britain Leave the EU?: An Economic Analysis of a Troubled Relationship, with Vidya Mahambare and Eric Nowell, Edward Elgar and The Institute of Economic Affairs, May 2005. A late draft version can be seen here, or buy it here.

• Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability, with David Meenagh and Bruce Webb- revised December 2003
  
  also printed[*] in
  
  Minford, Patrick, Meenagh, David & Webb, Bruce (2004) Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability. The World Economy 27 (3), 301-358.
  
  [*] This is an electronic version of an article published in The World Economy complete citation information for the final version of the paper, as published in the print edition of The World Economy, is available on the Blackwell Synergy online delivery service, accessible via the journal's website at http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 or http://www.blackwell-synergy.com
• Should Britain join the euro?- the Chancellor's five tests examined - published as IEA Occasional Paper 126, September 2002

Other Pages

• Teaching
• Current Research Interests
• Curriculum Vitae
• Published Work

 

The main text for third year and MSc courses is "Advanced Macroeconomics a primer".