Energy and Environmental Prediction (EEP)

The Energy and Environmental Prediction model (EEP) is a computer based modelling framework that quantifies energy use and associated emissions for cities to help plan to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and other emissions. EEP has been developed at Cardiff University since October 1994 with funding from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) with support from the Welsh Development Agency. Further development of the model is currently taking place, again with EPSRC funding, in collaboration with DeMontfort University, Leicester, University College, London and Queens University, Belfast to incorporate air pollution dispersal and a health sub-model and also to look at the implementation of the model into the local authority workplace.

Model Structure
The EEP model is based on Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and incorporates a number of sub-models to establish current energy use and CO2 emissions produced by domestic and non-domestic buildings, traffic and industrial processes for a city or region. Each sub-model uses UK Government accepted procedures to predict energy use and emissions with the exception of the traffic sub-model that has been developed using Spatial Analysis procedures. The model can predict the effects of future planning decisions from a whole city level down to a local level. The user can identify 'hotspots' of energy use and emissions that can be targeted to make environmental improvements. Each sub-model is linked through the GIS framework and can be accessed from a main menu screen. The EEP model uses an integrated approach that allows simultaneous appraisal of energy and pollution from one or a combination of built environment sectors. EEP is flexible enabling current sub-models to be updated as more accurate procedures are developed and as further sub-models are required.

Data Collection
Data for the model is collected from a variety of sources including maps, historical records and 'drive by' surveys. The EEP model acts as a database to store property based information that is collected. In order to plan and predict energy use to a high degree of accuracy a large amount of information is required. A 'rapid' data collection survey method has been developed to collect information to a satisfactory level unobtrusively, and within the time and staff resources available within local authorities budgets.

Data Presentation
The EEP model presents results in the form of thematic maps that highlight pollution or energy hotspots throughout a region. Results are presented to postcode level. These can be used to pinpoint areas of high energy use that can be targeted for improvement.

Application of the model
The EEP model has been designed to be transferable to other cities worldwide. The model is directly transferable to UK cities. It was initially developed in Cardiff (Wales) and is currently being applied to Camden (England), Leicester (England), Belfast (Northern Ireland), Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council (Wales) and Newcastle (Australia). Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council is the first local authority area where the EEP model is being applied fully, this has led to further work to promote energy efficiency to owner occupiers. The EEP model is currently being expanded to consider the impact of the built environment on public health. This work is jointly funded by the Medical Research Council and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council in collaboration with the Welsh School of Medicine.

EEP Framework